A Bayesian probability worksheet

This is a spinoff from the previous post. In that post, we remarked that whenever one receives a new piece of information , the prior odds ratio between an alternative hypothesis and a null hypothesis is updated to a posterior odds ratio , which can be computed via Bayes’ theorem by the formula where is […]

A Bayesian probability worksheet

What are the odds?

An unusual lottery result made the news recently: on October 1, 2022, the PCSO Grand Lotto in the Philippines, which draws six numbers from to at random, managed to draw the numbers (though the balls were actually drawn in the order ). In other words, they drew exactly six multiples of nine from to . […]

What are the odds?

General chi-square tests

Imagen tomada de Lifeder.

Statistical Odds & Ends

In this previous post, I wrote about the asymptotic distribution of the Pearson $latex chi^2$ statistic. Did you know that the Pearson $latex chi^2$ statistic (and the related hypothesis test) is actually a special case of a general class of $latex chi^2$ tests? In this post we describe the general $latex chi^2$ test. The presentation follows that in Chapters 23 and 24 of Ferguson (1996) (Reference 1). I’m leaving out the proofs, which can be found in the reference.

(Warning: This post is going to be pretty abstract! Nevertheless, I think it’s worth a post since I don’t think the idea is well-known.)

Let’s define some quantities. Let $latex Z_1, Z_2, dots in mathbb{R}^d$ be a sequence of random vectors whose distribution depends on a $latex k$-dimensional parameter $latex theta$ which lies in a parameter space $latex Theta$. $latex Theta$ is assumed to be a non-empty open subset…

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