In part one of my analysis of China’s economic future, I dealt with the claims that China would slow towards stagnation because its investment rate was too high, the working population was falling fast and the economy needed to become like mature Western capitalist economies based on consumption-led growth. I argued that the Western capitalist […]China: Xi’s third term – part two: property, debt and common prosperity
the-hunt-for-truss-1Download The delusional Truss became the most short-lived Prime Minister in British history. Boris Johnson is trying to regain the Premiership. In the article I posed the question whether the populist wing of the Tory Party had been crushed or not? The answer is it has. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Johnson will prevail […]IN THE MARKETS WE TRUSST. A Brief Review of the UK Government’s U-turn in the face of the BOE’s intransigence.
Imagen tomada de Translator without Borders.
Last week, Ukraine’s foreign private creditors agreed to the country’s request for a two-year freeze on payments on about $20bn of foreign debt. This would enable Ukraine to avoid defaulting on its overseas borrowings. Unlike other ‘emerging economies’ in debt distress, it seems that foreign bondholders are happy to help Ukraine out – if only for two years. The move will save Ukraine $6bn over the period, helping to reduce pressure on central bank reserves, which slid by 28 per cent year-to-date, despite significant foreign aid.
Ukraine’s economy is, not surprisingly, in a desperate state. Real GDP is projected to decline by more than 30% in 2022 and the unemployment rate is at 35% (Constantinescu et al. 2022, Blinov and Djankov 2022, National Bank of Ukraine 2022). “We are grateful for the private sector support of our proposal in such terrible times for our country,” responded Yuriy Butsa, Ukraine’s deputy…
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In several previous posts, I have highlighted what are called ‘zombie’ companies (companies whose regular profits do not even cover the cost of servicing their outstanding debts) and so must, to paraphrase former BoE governor Mark Carney, depend on the kindness of their creditors”. An OECD study found that such zombies take up a frighteningly […]Fallen angels
There is much talk among ‘progressive’ economists that the IMF and the World Bank have turned over a new leaf. Gone are the days of supporting fiscal austerity, demanding that national governments get public debt levels down and insisting on conditions for countries borrowing IMF-WB funds that their governments privatise their state assets, deregulate markets […]IMF and debt: a new consensus?