In part one of my analysis of China’s economic future, I dealt with the claims that China would slow towards stagnation because its investment rate was too high, the working population was falling fast and the economy needed to become like mature Western capitalist economies based on consumption-led growth. I argued that the Western capitalist […]China: Xi’s third term – part two: property, debt and common prosperity
China’s Congress of the Communist Party takes place this week. This is an important event not only for China, but globally. The Western media have concentrated on the fact that current party leader Xi Jinping will be confirmed for an unprecedented third term as party leader and thus also continue as President of China when […]China: Xi’s third term – part one: growth, investment and consumption
the-hunt-for-truss-1Download The delusional Truss became the most short-lived Prime Minister in British history. Boris Johnson is trying to regain the Premiership. In the article I posed the question whether the populist wing of the Tory Party had been crushed or not? The answer is it has. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that Johnson will prevail […]IN THE MARKETS WE TRUSST. A Brief Review of the UK Government’s U-turn in the face of the BOE’s intransigence.
Lula is just five points ahead in the polls – and if Bolsonaro defies them to a similar degree later this month, we may see four more years of the dangerous incumbent.Lula’s return to Palácio da Alvorada hangs on working class turnout
Alan Freeman Universidad Metropolitana de Londres RESUMEN Esta es una pre-publicación del capítulo con el mismo nombre que ha sido publicado por primera vez en Freeman et al (2001), reproducido con el amable permiso de los editores. Lo he reacomodado para uso académico como un texto por separado, con las referencias incluidas y con notas […]En favor de la simplicidad: un paradigma para la economía política del siglo 21
Poland’s right-wing ruling party is using the war reparations issue to undermine Germany’s moral narrative that it has come to terms with its Nazi past, and attack the liberal-centrist opposition for allegedly colluding with foreign powers to undermine the Polish government ahead of next year’s parliamentary election.Why has the Polish government raised the German war reparations issue?
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The announcement that US President’s Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has got the backing of pro-business, coal-mining owner Democratic Senator Manchin has been greeted with a wave of optimism that the US target of cutting carbon emissions in half before the end of this decade (or 40% compared with 2005 levels), can be met. “This bill will really turbocharge that transition to clean energy, it will transform markets where already solar PV, wind and batteries are in many cases cheaper than incumbent fossil fuels,” said Anand Gopal, executive director of policy at Energy Innovation, an open source research body. “Increasingly I’m more optimistic that keeping the temperature rise under 2C (3.6F) is more reachable. 1.5C is a stretch goal at this point.”
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Last week, Ukraine’s foreign private creditors agreed to the country’s request for a two-year freeze on payments on about $20bn of foreign debt. This would enable Ukraine to avoid defaulting on its overseas borrowings. Unlike other ‘emerging economies’ in debt distress, it seems that foreign bondholders are happy to help Ukraine out – if only for two years. The move will save Ukraine $6bn over the period, helping to reduce pressure on central bank reserves, which slid by 28 per cent year-to-date, despite significant foreign aid.
Ukraine’s economy is, not surprisingly, in a desperate state. Real GDP is projected to decline by more than 30% in 2022 and the unemployment rate is at 35% (Constantinescu et al. 2022, Blinov and Djankov 2022, National Bank of Ukraine 2022). “We are grateful for the private sector support of our proposal in such terrible times for our country,” responded Yuriy Butsa, Ukraine’s deputy…
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In my last post, I described how Western capital is planning to take over and control Ukraine’s resources and exploit its labour force to the maximum in order to boost the profitability of both Ukraine’s domestic capitalists (oligarchs) and foreign multi-nationals.
However, there is a problem for Western capital and Ukraine’s oligarchs: it’s Russia. The war has already led to Russian forces gaining control of at least $12.4trn worth of Ukraine’s resources in energy (cola), metals and mineral deposits, apart from agricultural land. If Putin’s forces succeed in annexing Ukrainian land seized during Russia’s invasion, Kyiv would permanently lose almost two-thirds of its deposits. Moscow now controls 63% of Ukraine’s coal deposits, 11% of its oil, 20% of its natural gas, 42% of its metals, and 33% of its rare earths.
So any rebuilding effort funded by Western capital has a major obstacle. “Not only will Ukraine have lost…
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